Shelly guideWhat-if: price, waste and outage levers
A quick scenario model, the same maths as the Excel scenario sheet, for testing an idea before trying it.
At a glance
- Price change −10% to +10%
- Price elasticity −2.5 to −0.2 (default −1.2)
- Waste reduction 0–60%
- Outage days avoided per week
How it works
- Volume change = price change × elasticity.
- New sales = sales × (1 + price change) × (1 + volume change).
- New GM % assumes unit costs stay the same.
- Uplift = new GM − base GM + waste saving + margin on recovered delivery sales.
How to read it
- If the uplift turns negative as elasticity moves towards −2, the price rise only works for loyal or convenience-driven lines.
- Waste reduction is usually the lowest-risk lever.
Limits & safeguards
- One elasticity for the whole store is a simplification. Categories differ a lot, so test on a few lines first.
Ask Shelly
What if we put prices up 3%?
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