Shelly · Weekly Sales Digest

Demo Neighbourhood Store (Eden Terrace format) · week ending Sunday 11 October 2026 · for Store Owner / Operations Manager

Sales were $18,767 this week (-4.4% on last week, -3.9% on last year, -7.6% vs budget). Gross margin held at 40.9%, and delivery channels made up 17.4% of sales. 8 items need action today, starting with: Pull Simmer Sauce 485g (GTIN 9429004521334) from shelf and quarantine ~29 units. Next 7 days forecast: $20,092. SARIMA-X was the most accurate model in backtesting (WAPE 18.1%).
Summary written by: Rules engine
Sales (7 days)
$18,767
-4.4% WoW · -3.9% YoY
vs Budget
-7.6%
Budget $20,320
Gross margin
40.9%
Target 38.0% · $7,673
Waste + markdown
2.3%
Target ≤3.0% · $425
Delivery share
17.4%
Target 18.0%
Next 7 days (forecast)
$20,092
+7.1% vs this week
Action plan

What to do, in priority order

PriorityAction$ / weekOwner
P1 · TodayCompliance - recall
Pull Simmer Sauce 485g (GTIN 9429004521334) from shelf and quarantine ~29 units; block the item at POS and follow the supplier recall steps
Supplier recall 2026-10-10: Undeclared allergen (milk). 33 units sold in the last 7 days.
–Duty Manager
P1 · TodayDelivery channel
Check the Uber Eats tablet/app on shift start and add it to the opening checklist
uber_eats fell to $0 vs usual $421 on 2026-10-07.
−$421Duty Manager
P1 · TodayAvailability
Check stock and on-shelf availability for Milk Standard 2L; raise an emergency order if gapped
2026-10-05: 3 units vs usual 37 - looks like a stock-out, not a demand drop.
−$166Duty Manager
P1 · TodayAvailability
Check stock and on-shelf availability for Eggs Free Range 12pk; raise an emergency order if gapped
2026-10-07: 1 units vs usual 11 - looks like a stock-out, not a demand drop.
−$110Duty Manager
P1 · TodayAvailability
Check stock and on-shelf availability for Hot Pie Mince & Cheese; raise an emergency order if gapped
2026-10-05: 8 units vs usual 23 - looks like a stock-out, not a demand drop.
−$82Duty Manager
P1 · TodayAvailability
Check stock and on-shelf availability for Sushi Pack 8pc; raise an emergency order if gapped
2026-10-06: 7 units vs usual 14 - looks like a stock-out, not a demand drop.
−$70Duty Manager
P1 · TodayAvailability
Check stock and on-shelf availability for Filled Roll; raise an emergency order if gapped
2026-10-06: 5 units vs usual 12 - looks like a stock-out, not a demand drop.
−$45Duty Manager
P1 · TodayAvailability
Check stock and on-shelf availability for Chocolate Block 200g; raise an emergency order if gapped
2026-10-06: 12 units vs usual 20 - looks like a stock-out, not a demand drop.
−$44Duty Manager
P2 · This weekBudget
Recovery plan for the categories furthest behind budget: Food To Go, Beer & Wine
Store -7.6% vs budget; Food To Go $742 behind; Beer & Wine $399 behind
−$1,141Owner
P2 · This weekCategory
Investigate Hot Pie Mince & Cheese: price, quality, range position or a new competitor
15.1/day vs 20.2/day (-25%) over 14 days, and it isn't seasonal (last year held steady).
−$196Store Manager
P2 · This weekShrinkage
Re-count RTD 4pk, move to a higher-visibility location, and review CCTV around the gap
SAP 46 vs shelf 36 (repeat). Loss at cost $119.
−$119Store Manager
P2 · This weekShrinkage
Re-count Chocolate Block 200g, move to a higher-visibility location, and review CCTV around the gap
SAP 142 vs shelf 110 (repeat). Loss at cost $102.
−$102Store Manager
P2 · This weekWaste
Cut the Chicken Sandwich order by ~30% and move markdowns to 2pm
28 units wasted vs usual 11/week.
−$65Duty Manager
P2 · This weekData quality - GS1
Fix 2 invalid barcode(s) in the product master: Taco Kit, Phone Charger Cable
An invalid GTIN check digit means scan failures, wrong prices and recall matching gaps.
–Admin / SAP
P2 · This weekSAP / receiving
Check the GR for Salsa 300g against the supplier invoice and raise a DDN if needed
SAP 30 vs shelf 36 (repeat) - usually an extra case received but not booked.
+$17Admin / SAP
P3 · Next reviewCompliance - liquor
Spot-check ID verification on 7 liquor units sent by delivery this week
Sale and Supply of Alcohol Act 2012 - remote sales need age verification at the door.
–Licensee / Duty Manager
P3 · Next reviewRange
Range review candidates (C-class and high waste): Avocado
Space could go to A-class lines that are stocking out.
–Owner
P3 · Next reviewRostering
Roster 189 hours next week; peak day Fri 16 Oct
Forecast sales $20,092 at $110/labour hour, wage cost 25.4% of sales.
–Store Manager
P3 · Next reviewDemand
Find out what drove the Chicken Sandwich spike (local event? competitor out?) and hold extra cover if it repeats
2026-10-08: 32 units vs usual 18.
+$101Duty Manager
P3 · Next reviewDemand
Find out what drove the Energy Drink 500ml spike (local event? competitor out?) and hold extra cover if it repeats
2026-10-08: 98 units vs usual 29.
+$296Duty Manager
Performance

Daily sales and 7-day forecast

$0.0k$1.0k$2.0k$3.0k$4.0kMon 17 Aug: $3,131Tue 18 Aug: $2,785Wed 19 Aug: $2,733Thu 20 Aug: $2,839Fri 21 Aug: $3,148Sat 22 Aug: $2,630Sun 23 Aug: $1,991Mon 24 Aug: $2,888Tue 25 Aug: $2,828Wed 26 Aug: $2,579Thu 27 Aug: $2,816Fri 28 Aug: $3,278Sat 29 Aug: $2,344Sun 30 Aug: $1,972Mon 31 Aug: $2,767Tue 01 Sep: $2,650Wed 02 Sep: $2,810Thu 03 Sep: $3,319Fri 04 Sep: $2,804Sat 05 Sep: $2,377Sun 06 Sep: $2,094Mon 07 Sep: $3,101Tue 08 Sep: $2,657Wed 09 Sep: $2,892Thu 10 Sep: $3,067Fri 11 Sep: $3,155Sat 12 Sep: $2,260Sun 13 Sep: $2,212Mon 14 Sep: $2,876Tue 15 Sep: $3,197Wed 16 Sep: $3,176Thu 17 Sep: $3,594Fri 18 Sep: $3,292Sat 19 Sep: $2,510Sun 20 Sep: $2,095Mon 21 Sep: $2,372Tue 22 Sep: $3,056Wed 23 Sep: $3,156Thu 24 Sep: $2,998Fri 25 Sep: $3,125Sat 26 Sep: $2,441Sun 27 Sep: $1,868Mon 28 Sep: $3,150Tue 29 Sep: $2,978Wed 30 Sep: $2,924Thu 01 Oct: $3,137Fri 02 Oct: $3,087Sat 03 Oct: $2,574Sun 04 Oct: $1,778Mon 05 Oct: $2,878Tue 06 Oct: $2,397Wed 07 Oct: $2,412Thu 08 Oct: $3,303Fri 09 Oct: $3,374Sat 10 Oct: $2,245Sun 11 Oct: $2,158Mon 12 Oct forecast: $3,050Tue 13 Oct forecast: $3,030Wed 14 Oct forecast: $2,956Thu 15 Oct forecast: $3,204Fri 16 Oct forecast: $3,248Sat 17 Oct forecast: $2,503Sun 18 Oct forecast: $2,10217 Aug31 Aug14 Sep28 Sep12 Oct18 Oct
ActualForecast (best model per category)

What moved sales vs last week

Last week: $19,629$19,629Last weekVolume: −$404−$404VolumeMix: −$388−$388MixPrice: −$69−$69PriceThis week: $18,767$18,767This week

Volume = more or fewer units, mix = shift toward cheaper or dearer lines, price = selling-price change (promos).

Delivery channels, last 14 days

$465Mon 28 Sep Uber Eats: $406Tue 29 Sep Uber Eats: $337Wed 30 Sep Uber Eats: $401Thu 01 Oct Uber Eats: $446Fri 02 Oct Uber Eats: $465Sat 03 Oct Uber Eats: $427Sun 04 Oct Uber Eats: $193Mon 05 Oct Uber Eats: $356Tue 06 Oct Uber Eats: $0Wed 07 Oct Uber Eats: $0Thu 08 Oct Uber Eats: $418Fri 09 Oct Uber Eats: $384Sat 10 Oct Uber Eats: $277Sun 11 Oct Uber Eats: $300Uber EatsMon 28 Sep On-Demand: $216Tue 29 Sep On-Demand: $200Wed 30 Sep On-Demand: $230Thu 01 Oct On-Demand: $226Fri 02 Oct On-Demand: $238Sat 03 Oct On-Demand: $168Sun 04 Oct On-Demand: $128Mon 05 Oct On-Demand: $169Tue 06 Oct On-Demand: $243Wed 07 Oct On-Demand: $230Thu 08 Oct On-Demand: $273Fri 09 Oct On-Demand: $274Sat 10 Oct On-Demand: $166Sun 11 Oct On-Demand: $169On-DemandMon 28Wed 30Fri 02Sun 04Tue 06Thu 08Sat 10

Each point is one day's sales. A drop to zero is an outage, not a demand change.

Category vs budget

Food To GoFood To Go: -$742 vs budget−$742Beer & WineBeer & Wine: -$399 vs budget−$399GroceryGrocery: -$384 vs budget−$384FrozenFrozen: -$233 vs budget−$233DairyDairy: -$202 vs budget−$202Snacks & ConfectionerySnacks & Confectionery: -$95 vs budget−$95HouseholdHousehold: -$54 vs budget−$54ProduceProduce: +$22 vs budget+$22BakeryBakery: +$51 vs budget+$51Health & BeautyHealth & Beauty: +$121 vs budget+$121BeveragesBeverages: +$360 vs budget+$360

Category P&L

CategorySalesGM %WoW %YoY %vs BudgetWasteContribution
Beverages$3,24750.8+18.4%+17.0%+$360$0$1,649
Dairy$3,12528.3+4.0%-2.3%−$202$26$853
Food To Go$3,00648.3-14.8%-16.6%−$742$223$1,113
Beer & Wine$2,07234.4-9.2%-12.8%−$399$0$714
Snacks & Confectionery$1,86542.7-14.8%-1.0%−$95$0$797
Grocery$1,79235.0-17.4%-14.4%−$384$0$627
Frozen$1,16345.8-19.4%-13.3%−$233$0$532
Bakery$1,14238.7+4.4%+8.9%+$51$26$400
Household$53942.3+14.2%-5.4%−$54$0$228
Produce$48141.5+15.5%+9.1%+$22$8$186
Health & Beauty$33444.8+16.4%+63.0%+$121$0$149
Exceptions

What the agent flagged

DateSignalItemDetailImpact
2026-10-07Channel outage / dropuber_eats$0 vs usual $421−$421
2026-10-08Sales spikeEnergy Drink 500ml98 units vs usual 29+$296
2026-10-11Sustained decline (14 days)Hot Pie Mince & Cheese15.1/day vs 20.2/day (-25%)−$196
2026-10-05Sales drop / possible stock-outMilk Standard 2L3 units vs usual 37−$166
2026-10-11Shrinkage (physical < SAP)RTD 4pkSAP 46 vs shelf 36 (repeat)−$119
2026-10-07Sales drop / possible stock-outEggs Free Range 12pk1 units vs usual 11−$110
2026-10-11Shrinkage (physical < SAP)Chocolate Block 200gSAP 142 vs shelf 110 (repeat)−$102
2026-10-08Sales spikeChicken Sandwich32 units vs usual 18+$101
2026-10-05Sales drop / possible stock-outHot Pie Mince & Cheese8 units vs usual 23−$82
2026-10-06Sales drop / possible stock-outSushi Pack 8pc7 units vs usual 14−$70
2026-10-11Waste blow-outChicken Sandwich28 units wasted vs usual 11/week−$65
2026-10-08Sales spikeIce Block Single28 units vs usual 12+$49
2026-10-06Sales spikePotato Chips 150g30 units vs usual 18+$46
2026-10-06Sales drop / possible stock-outFilled Roll5 units vs usual 12−$45
2026-10-06Sales drop / possible stock-outChocolate Block 200g12 units vs usual 20−$44
2026-10-11Sales spikeToast Bread White24 units vs usual 12+$42
2026-10-11Count gain (physical > SAP) - check receiving / GRSalsa 300gSAP 30 vs shelf 36 (repeat)+$17

Method: robust z-score (median/MAD) against the same weekday over the previous 8 weeks. Declines are checked against last year to separate seasonality from real problems. SAP counts are compared with shelf counts.

Operations

Reorder list (JIT)

ProductSupplierOn hand (est.)Days coverReorder ptOrder qtyOrder $Status
Phone Charger CableHome Supplies43.564$22Order

Reorder point = demand over lead time + review period, plus safety stock (z=1.65). Order-up-to is capped at the product's shelf life so we don't order in waste. Recalled lines are blocked. Showing the top 15. The full list is in the Excel workbook.

Roster plan, next 7 days

DayForecast salesHoursWage costWage % sales
Mon 12 Oct$3,05027.7$74824.5%
Tue 13 Oct$3,03027.5$74224.5%
Wed 14 Oct$2,95626.9$72624.6%
Thu 15 Oct$3,20429.1$78624.5%
Fri 16 Oct$3,24829.5$79624.5%
Sat 17 Oct$2,50324.0$64825.9%
Sun 18 Oct$2,10224.0$64830.8%

Hours = forecast sales ÷ $110 per labour hour, minimum 24 h/day.

Strategy

Product segments (K-means)

SegmentSKUsUnits/dayGM %Waste %Delivery %Promo uplift %JaccardStability
Promo-responsive105.539.20.020.588.40.57Unstable
Delivery favourites1213.848.30.023.318.20.74Pattern
Traffic drivers (high velocity)523.734.53.818.328.40.44Unstable
Volatile / irregular demand164.640.10.317.82.80.68Pattern
Waste-exposed perishables711.546.77.722.936.00.78Stable

Features: velocity, margin, demand volatility, waste rate, delivery share and promo uplift (last 13 weeks, standardised). Silhouette by k: k=2: 0.24, k=3: 0.24, k=4: 0.25, k=5: 0.26, so k=5 was chosen. Stability is the bootstrap Jaccard over 100 resamples (Hennig: under 0.6 means the cluster doesn't hold up). PCA explains 58% of variance in 2 components.

Products in each segment
SegmentProducts
Delivery favouritesEnergy Drink 500ml, Cola 1.5L, Iced Coffee 500ml, Bottled Water 750ml, Potato Chips 150g, Chocolate Block 200g, Muesli Bar 6pk, Corn Chips 230g, Lollies Bag 200g, Ice Block Single, Instant Noodles 5pk, Canned Soup 500g
Promo-responsiveOat Milk 1L, Butter 500g, Sparkling Water 1L, Kombucha 330ml, Frozen Pizza, Frozen Dumplings 1kg, Salsa 300g, Taco Kit, Sunscreen SPF50, Craft Beer 6pk
Traffic drivers (high velocity)Milk Standard 2L, Milk Lite 2L, Toast Bread White, Wholemeal Loaf, Bananas (each)
Volatile / irregular demandGreek Yoghurt 1kg, Cheese Block 1kg, Bubble Tea Kit, Ice Cream Tub 2L, Pasta 500g, Simmer Sauce 485g, Eggs Free Range 12pk, Coffee Beans 200g, Tomatoes 500g, Toilet Paper 6pk, Dishwash Liquid, Phone Charger Cable, Paracetamol 20pk, Sauvignon Blanc 750ml, RTD 4pk, Pinot Noir 750ml
Waste-exposed perishablesCroissant 4pk, Chicken Sandwich, Sushi Pack 8pc, Hot Pie Mince & Cheese, Salad Bowl, Filled Roll, Avocado
Model evaluation (CRISP-DM phase 5)

Forecast accuracy by model

SARIMA-XSARIMA-X: WAPE 18.1%, MAPE 27.3%18.1%XGBoostXGBoost: WAPE 18.8%, MAPE 28.7%18.8%Seasonal NaiveSeasonal Naive: WAPE 24.0%, MAPE 36.0%24.0%NaiveNaive: WAPE 35.9%, MAPE 42.3%35.9%DriftDrift: WAPE 35.9%, MAPE 42.3%35.9%

WAPE = total absolute error ÷ total actual sales, lower is better. Rolling-origin backtest: 4 folds × 7 days. SARIMA-X beat the seasonal-naive baseline by 5.9 WAPE points, so the extra complexity pays for itself here.

Model chosen for each category

CategoryBest modelWAPE %
BakerySARIMA-X14.4
Beer & WineXGBoost29.9
BeveragesXGBoost15.3
DairySARIMA-X14.9
Food To GoSARIMA-X14.7
FrozenSARIMA-X19.3
GrocerySARIMA-X17.5
Health & BeautySARIMA-X48.4
HouseholdXGBoost30.2
ProduceSARIMA-X20.6
Snacks & ConfectioneryXGBoost12.3
Data understanding (CRISP-DM phase 2)

Data quality score: 90/100

80,587 rows across 5 tables · 2024-10-12 to 2026-10-11